The next 48 hours will likely bring mixed results on the economy for the federal government, already under fire in opinion polls over its botched home insulation program.

There is a growing expectation on financial markets that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will decide to lift the official cash rate at Tuesday’s board meeting that would further increase the average home loan monthly repayment by just under $50.

However, Wednesday’s national accounts are likely to show a solid acceleration in economic growth in the three months to December, possibly growing at its fastest pace since mid-2007.

RBS Australia chief economist Kieran Davies said markets were now pricing in a 60 per cent likelihood that the central bank will lift the cash by 25 basis points, to 4.0 per cent, after its surprise decision to leave the rate unchanged in February.
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A bank manager stole more than $1 million from two major banks so he could avoid “low living”, a court has been told.

Jason Paul Gabriel, 40, of Bardon, was sentenced to eight years’ jail in the Brisbane District Court on Tuesday for defrauding Suncorp Metway and St George banks between 2005 and 2007.

Prosecutor David Nardone told the court Gabriel was employed with Suncorp Metway as manager of equipment finance leasing when he first used his position to steal cheques totalling $201,272.

Mr Nardone said Gabriel also created fraudulent lease agreements worth around $600,000.

He said Gabriel used some of the money to pay back the stolen cheques, which resulted in a “continuing spiral of theft and repayment”.
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The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has confirmed an on-target inflation outlook allowed it to postpone an interest rate rise on Tuesday, but a postponement is not the same as a cancellation.

Borrowers should be aware of the basis for the benign inflation outlook forecast in the RBA’s quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy released on Friday.

“The forecasts are based on the technical assumption of a rise in the cash rate over the forecast period , with the assumed path broadly consistent with market expectations as the statement was finalised,” the RBA said.

The statement was finalised on Thursday, when the futures market had factored in a rise in the cash rate from the current 3.75 per cent to around 4.5 per cent by the end of the year and not much below five per cent by early in the second half of 2011.
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Established non-bank lender Resi Mortgage Corporation has launched an exciting new employment model to provide experienced lending specialists with a transitional role which enables them to build their own pathway to becoming a fully-fledged franchisee.

Resi’s Head of Consumer Advocacy, Lisa Montgomery, says the company’s new LaunchPad career program is part of Resi’s expansion plans and will offer entrepreneurial minded lending specialists the opportunity to break free from being the top performing employee, to eventually being a successful business owner.

She says: “This employment model is something we have been working on for quite some time and will certainly appeal to appropriately credentialed lending professionals who have the experience to run their own book - but are not quite ready yet to take the financial leap into owning their own franchise.”
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An eight-month low in lending finance approvals recorded in the month of October will have no more bearing on the interest rate outlook than the 18-month high recorded a month earlier.

The total value of finance commitments fell by 9.7 per cent in October to $50.766 billion, seasonally adjusted, from $56.208 billion in September, data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) on Monday showed.

Within the total, commitments for housing finance, including alterations and additions, fell by 1.7 per cent while, other personal finance was down by 1.5 per cent, however the overall fall was dominated by commercial finance, which recorded a 16.3 per cent drop.

It is tempting to try to attribute these movements to some underlying economic cause, but the volatility of this series warns against that.
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Demand for home loans is set to decline in the year ahead as interest rates creep higher and investors stay on the sidelines, a report says.

The value of all new home loans was expected to fall by $14.4 billion in the 12 months to September 2010, down 8.8 per cent from the same period a year earlier, a report by independent consultants Market Intelligence Strategy Centre (MISC) says.

“This will reflect a slower return of investor lending and still strained funding, which will restrict small-lender activity, as well as further rate increases,” the MISC report released on Monday said.

An MISC spokesman said the $14.4 billion decline, if realised, would be the largest total fall since 2003, when the value of all new home loans written backpedalled by about $35 billion.
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Out shopping, or away from home on holiday, Australians should be especially vigilant in the holiday season to prevent identity theft.

One in five Australians have been victims of identity theft, a survey has found.

Christmas and New Year is a period of peak activity for fraudsters and identity thieves, survey sponsor Veda Advantage, an ID theft protection company, says.

“Everyday things like online shopping, more frequent use of credit cards and ATMs and leaving mail to pile up in our letterbox when we are away can increase our exposure to identity theft,” company spokesman Kelvin Kirk says.

“When we’re relaxing on holiday we are often less conscious of when and where we hand over valuable identity information - leaving us vulnerable to fraud,” he said.
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National Bank of Australia Ltd (NAB) has raised its variable mortgage rate by the same amount as the central bank, as it attempts to lure customers away from rivals and particularly Westpac Banking Corporation.

NAB said in a statement on Thursday that it would increase its standard variable home loan rate by 25 basis points, to 6.49 per cent, effective from Friday December 4.

By constrast, Westpac on Tuesday raised its variable home loan rate by 45 basis points to 6.76 per cent, effective from Friday December 4. The increase was almost double the increase in the cash rate announced earlier that day by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).

The RBA increased the cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.75 per cent, its first ever third consecutive monthly increase since it began announcing rate increases in 1990.
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Leading mortgage broker and non-bank lender Aussie Home Loans has called on the central bank to leave official interests rates on hold at its board meeting next week.

Many financial market economists believe the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is likely to lift the cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.75 per cent on Tuesday, December 1.

But Aussie executive chairman John Symond said credit is in short supply and a further rate hike now may hurt lending and consumer confidence, despite signs that the overall economy is emerging from the global downturn.

“We are heading into the crucial Christmas retail season and a rate hike will hurt sales and create further concerns for households,” he said in a statement on Thursday.
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Mortgage broker Mortgage Choice Ltd says loan settlements in the first quarter of 2009/10 are above budget and at levels seen before the global financial crisis (GFC).

Chief executive Michael Russell says the average monthly value of all loans settled in the first quarter of 2009/10 was 19 per cent above the prior corresponding period.

“Settlements are tracking above budget and have returned to pre-GFC levels,” Mr Russell told shareholders at the company’s annual general meeting in Sydney on Tuesday.

Moreover, the value of loan approvals had posted a solid rise in the first quarter of 2009/10, rising 21 per cent from the prior corresponding period, he said in a slide presentation.

The average monthly value of all home loans approved was about $920 million.
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Suncorp-Metway Ltd group chief executive Patrick Snowball says the company’s underlying banking business is sound, with declining bad and doubtful debt charges and healthy deposit growth.

Mr Snowball on Tuesday talked up the “excellent prospects” for the banking arm, adding that Australians had shown appetite for second-tier banks.

He again rejected on-going speculation in financial markets that the asset could be offloaded.

“The core assets of Suncorp group are sound and worth retaining within the organisation,” Mr Snowball told an investor briefing.

“The biggest threat to its prospects has been the continued speculation around the sale.
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Economic growth in the second half of 2009 will be `tepid’, but looks set for a brighter future in 2010, a private sector survey has found.

The annualised growth rate of the Westpac-Melbourne Institute leading index of economic activity, which indicates the likely pace of activity three to nine months in the future, was minus-1.8 per cent in July.

That was an improvement from the reading of minus-3.3 per cent in June and minus-seven per cent in May.

But the index remains well below its long term trend of 2.5 per cent, the survey released on Wednesday found.
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Malcolm Turnbull has labelled Prime Minister Kevin Rudd a self-styled “philosopher-king” handing down edicts from on high on how the world can be better governed, in an essay published on Saturday.

In the Opposition leader’s response to Mr Rudd’s 6000-word essay published in Fairfax newspapers last weekend, in which the prime minister warned Australians to expect a tough road towards economic recovery, Mr Turnbull said Mr Rudd had created his own “fantasy world” of recent economic history.

In his 2000-word essay, published in the Weekend Australian, Mr Turnbull says Mr Rudd uses media spin to change his message to suit what he believes people want to hear.
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Treasurer Wayne Swan says he welcomes a report which shows signs of economic recovery, conceding the worst of the global downturn could be over.

The Access Economics business outlook report says the jobless rate could hit a ceiling of 7.5 per cent in 2010 - lower than the government’s prediction of 8.5 per cent.

But Mr Swan says it is still important to push ahead with stimulus measures to help slowing investment in private business and trade.

“It doesn’t show that we’re out of the downturn, it shows that the worst of the global economy may be behind us but that we will live with the consequences of the global recession for some time to come,” Mr Swan told reporters in Brisbane on Tuesday.
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