Rise in job ads welcome but jobless rate still to peak at 6.5pct

The number of jobs advertised in major newspapers and websites jumped in November, but jobs growth is expected to be weak through summer ahead of a peak in unemployment peaking at 6.5 per cent next year.

The ANZ job ads survey showed that overall job ads averaged 140,658 a week in November, up 5.2 per cent from October.

Newspaper job ads were 8.3 per cent higher at 9,530 per week, and internet job ads were up five per cent to average 131,128 a week.

The report, which is looked to by market analysts as a leading indicator of official labour force figures, also showed total job ads were 12.3 per cent higher from the recent low in July, although still down 34.2 per cent from November 2008.

But ANZ acting chief economist Warren Hogan said he still expected the unemployment rate to peak at 6.5 per cent - in line with Treasury predictions - by mid 2010.

“In the near term, we expect weak employment growth over the summer months,” he said in a statement.

“If total hours worked picks up pace, then more of these jobs will be full-time.

“But even with this jobs growth, continuing labour force growth will still see a further increase in the national unemployment rate, probably to around 6.5 per cent in mid-2010.”

In trend terms, the number of newspaper job advertisements grew by 2.3 per cent in November, the sixth consecutive month of trend growth.

The national unemployment rate grew by 0.1 per cent in October to 5.8 per cent, the most recent Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) data show.

The ABS is expected to release its November employment figures on Thursday.

“ANZ is expecting a small increase in net employment of 5,000 in (November). The unemployment rate is expected to rise from 5.8 per cent to 5.9 per cent,” Mr Hogan said.

Meanwhile, the overall job ads survey still showed the Australian economy is on the way to recovery.

“The 8.3 per cent lift in newspaper job advertising in November is particularly encouraging, given that this sector tends to lead overall job advertising trends,” Mr Hogan said.

“The recent strength in job advertising is consistent with the positive trends seen in many other indicators across the Australian economy.

“Taken together, these … imply that Australia’s recovery from the recent downturn is gathering pace.

“Eventually, the improvement in job advertising will translate into higher employment growth,” he said.

The ANZ job ads series came a day after the Olivier job index survey showing 5.88 per cent growth in November.

That survey also showed ads for full time jobs were up 5.9 per cent compared to part time jobs, which grew 4.6 per cent in the month.

On a state by state basis, the ANZ job ads series recorded growth in all states except Queensland.

The biggest increase in newspaper job advertisements in November was in Western Australia, which recorded 18.4 per cent growth in the month.

ANZ senior economist Julie Toth said the WA figure was extremely volatile, however, and pointed to the “boom and bust economy in the west”.

Jobs advertised in Victoria grew by 14 per cent, while they rose in the Northern Territory by 10.5 per cent.

Ads in the ACT were up 10.3 per cent, in South Australia by 7.2 per cent, and they grew in NSW by six per cent.

Tasmanian ads grew by 0.8 per cent.

Queensland was the only state to experience a fall in newspaper job advertisements in November, down 4.4 per cent on October.

AAP

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