Comments on: AMP Shane Oliver pencils in another rate hike in December and expresses concern about housing affordability http://www.lendingcentral.com/2009/11/10/amp-shane-oliver-pencils-in-another-rate-hike-in-december-and-expresses-concern-about-housing-affordability/ The first word in mortgage news Fri, 19 Mar 2010 14:13:38 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.5.1 By: Let retail lending stop inflation???? http://www.lendingcentral.com/2009/11/10/amp-shane-oliver-pencils-in-another-rate-hike-in-december-and-expresses-concern-about-housing-affordability/#comment-22771 Let retail lending stop inflation???? Fri, 13 Nov 2009 01:52:16 +0000 http://www.lendingcentral.com/?p=3245#comment-22771 I still can't understand why the home owner has to cop it in the neck? Noticed latly, that commercial has been going up slowly, and car finance is around 8.5% to 9.2%. These so called experts are all over the shop at the moment, what would happen if no one said a word about interest rate? Would the polly's jump on the ship that was not sinking, or would they drown? It is all very subjective, so boys, keep your thoughts to yourself, for the time being, and let the RVBA do it themselves. I still can’t understand why the home owner has to cop it in the neck? Noticed latly, that commercial has been going up slowly, and car finance is around 8.5% to 9.2%. These so called experts are all over the shop at the moment, what would happen if no one said a word about interest rate? Would the polly’s jump on the ship that was not sinking, or would they drown?

It is all very subjective, so boys, keep your thoughts to yourself, for the time being, and let the RVBA do it themselves.

]]> By: SMc http://www.lendingcentral.com/2009/11/10/amp-shane-oliver-pencils-in-another-rate-hike-in-december-and-expresses-concern-about-housing-affordability/#comment-22649 SMc Thu, 12 Nov 2009 03:16:50 +0000 http://www.lendingcentral.com/?p=3245#comment-22649 To get a REALLY good idea of Shane Oliver's track record of predictions, this appeared just 6 months ago in the Murdoch press (google it): "AMP chief economist Shane Oliver believed rates could fall as low as 2 per cent by year end ..." He's on much more money than you or I, but often gets it wrong. Prior to that he predicted rates would go up - and they soon plummetted. He obviously just likes getting his name and photo published. To get a REALLY good idea of Shane Oliver’s track record of predictions, this appeared just 6 months ago in the Murdoch press (google it):

“AMP chief economist Shane Oliver believed rates could fall as low as 2 per cent by year end …”

He’s on much more money than you or I, but often gets it wrong. Prior to that he predicted rates would go up - and they soon plummetted. He obviously just likes getting his name and photo published.

]]> By: Tinpusher http://www.lendingcentral.com/2009/11/10/amp-shane-oliver-pencils-in-another-rate-hike-in-december-and-expresses-concern-about-housing-affordability/#comment-22601 Tinpusher Wed, 11 Nov 2009 11:00:26 +0000 http://www.lendingcentral.com/?p=3245#comment-22601 Furthermore, I've written extensively about this on the AP forum (link below) Cheers, Michael. http://z3.invisionfree.com/Australian_Property/ Furthermore, I’ve written extensively about this on the AP forum (link below) Cheers, Michael.

http://z3.invisionfree.com/Australian_Property/

]]> By: Tinpusher http://www.lendingcentral.com/2009/11/10/amp-shane-oliver-pencils-in-another-rate-hike-in-december-and-expresses-concern-about-housing-affordability/#comment-22600 Tinpusher Wed, 11 Nov 2009 10:59:12 +0000 http://www.lendingcentral.com/?p=3245#comment-22600 Its pretty simple really. We have seen the biggest % rise in population during the past year and interest rates are around 5%. Most of our cities have seen a rise of over 9% in property values this year. A period which the saw CPI index falling so in real terms prices are up even more! Consequently, renters now face catastrophic rent rises or the better choice of buying property before house prices sky rocket further (this is already unfolding). The bears will tell you that these cities are "going to crash, low in demand, overpriced" etc and this makes them feel better. They say things like "house prices will fall 40%, Australia will enter a severe recession blah blah". They also say rubbish things like "banks will margin call property investors". Well these dumb bears myths are being blown apart right now. Keen, Minack and most GHPC members already have plenty of rotten egg on their faces. I suspect that the smarter bears like Wang Poon and FHB already worked out what's coming and decided to buy. DOS is just slowly starting to figure it out now, and Annus........ well quite frankly this bloke is too stupid to know what is currently happening, let alone what is coming. Make no mistake, house prices in Australia will rise significantly. The trendier the town the larger the % rise will be. Some of these cities are facing a 20%+ rise over the next few years according to BIS. The other smaller holiday towns across Australia will rise 10-15%. Fortunately the Kevin Rudd inspired boosts have had massive effect on these cities. I cannot see anything that is going to prevent property from the massive boom that is unfolding. Like millions of Australians, I understands what the implications of the recent government stimulus and low interest rates and high population growth will be. The recent slowdown has clearly passed and Australia's house prices will rise to a higher level than most other countries. After every slowdown there is the inevitable boom and the boom that Australia now faces is likely to be the biggest boom on record. Make no mistake, the slowdown is over. By the time this boom is finished, it will leave the early noughties boom looking like a mild uplift. Think 60% real trough to peak increase in Australian house prices by the time it's over. We will not even talk about the possibility of a crash for at least another 8 to 10 years. Of course investors are also getting ready to jump in. Net rental yields are getting to positive cash flow now. Investors are ready to stampede on Westpac and CBA's front door any day. I actually want to buy and am considering the local Collaroy market (Sydney $800k to $1.1m), I have little doubt that this area will outperform. This 2nd decile of the Sydney market will likely face a very steep rise. Kevin Rudds boosts will have less effect here (although still some effect nevertheless) on this decile of the market but the main driver for the rises will be low interest rates, massive overseas immigration, and a realisation that the Australian economy has pulled through the GFC in excellent shape. We all know that the Australian beaurocrats have barely touched the surface of what is possible to maintain house prices on their upward trajectory, and that means house prices will inevitably remain very high, building costs will also be high and the economy will rightfully correct itself on the back of a construction led housing boom. Their justification is that the Australian economy will be booming again in 18 months time and the housing market will be up and running again on its own two feet. Hooray! Michael White. Its pretty simple really. We have seen the biggest % rise in population during the past year and interest rates are around 5%. Most of our cities have seen a rise of over 9% in property values this year. A period which the saw CPI index falling so in real terms prices are up even more! Consequently, renters now face catastrophic rent rises or the better choice of buying property before house prices sky rocket further (this is already unfolding). The bears will tell you that these cities are “going to crash, low in demand, overpriced” etc and this makes them feel better. They say things like “house prices will fall 40%, Australia will enter a severe recession blah blah”. They also say rubbish things like “banks will margin call property investors”. Well these dumb bears myths are being blown apart right now. Keen, Minack and most GHPC members already have plenty of rotten egg on their faces. I suspect that the smarter bears like Wang Poon and FHB already worked out what’s coming and decided to buy. DOS is just slowly starting to figure it out now, and Annus…….. well quite frankly this bloke is too stupid to know what is currently happening, let alone what is coming. Make no mistake, house prices in Australia will rise significantly. The trendier the town the larger the % rise will be. Some of these cities are facing a 20%+ rise over the next few years according to BIS. The other smaller holiday towns across Australia will rise 10-15%. Fortunately the Kevin Rudd inspired boosts have had massive effect on these cities. I cannot see anything that is going to prevent property from the massive boom that is unfolding. Like millions of Australians, I understands what the implications of the recent government stimulus and low interest rates and high population growth will be. The recent slowdown has clearly passed and Australia’s house prices will rise to a higher level than most other countries. After every slowdown there is the inevitable boom and the boom that Australia now faces is likely to be the biggest boom on record. Make no mistake, the slowdown is over. By the time this boom is finished, it will leave the early noughties boom looking like a mild uplift. Think 60% real trough to peak increase in Australian house prices by the time it’s over. We will not even talk about the possibility of a crash for at least another 8 to 10 years. Of course investors are also getting ready to jump in. Net rental yields are getting to positive cash flow now. Investors are ready to stampede on Westpac and CBA’s front door any day. I actually want to buy and am considering the local Collaroy market (Sydney $800k to $1.1m), I have little doubt that this area will outperform. This 2nd decile of the Sydney market will likely face a very steep rise. Kevin Rudds boosts will have less effect here (although still some effect nevertheless) on this decile of the market but the main driver for the rises will be low interest rates, massive overseas immigration, and a realisation that the Australian economy has pulled through the GFC in excellent shape. We all know that the Australian beaurocrats have barely touched the surface of what is possible to maintain house prices on their upward trajectory, and that means house prices will inevitably remain very high, building costs will also be high and the economy will rightfully correct itself on the back of a construction led housing boom. Their justification is that the Australian economy will be booming again in 18 months time and the housing market will be up and running again on its own two feet. Hooray! Michael White.

]]> By: broker http://www.lendingcentral.com/2009/11/10/amp-shane-oliver-pencils-in-another-rate-hike-in-december-and-expresses-concern-about-housing-affordability/#comment-22598 broker Wed, 11 Nov 2009 10:46:31 +0000 http://www.lendingcentral.com/?p=3245#comment-22598 please shane, you are wrong more than you are right! last month you said 50 pts, best to keep quiet or throw out the crystal ball! please shane, you are wrong more than you are right! last month you said 50 pts, best to keep quiet or throw out the crystal ball!

]]> By: Ted http://www.lendingcentral.com/2009/11/10/amp-shane-oliver-pencils-in-another-rate-hike-in-december-and-expresses-concern-about-housing-affordability/#comment-22577 Ted Wed, 11 Nov 2009 03:20:55 +0000 http://www.lendingcentral.com/?p=3245#comment-22577 RBA should walk a very straight line for a period. It is all very well to state that there are concerns about inflation, but, the main features as I see it at the present are: - unemployment - australia is the only country to increase rates of late, albeit from a much higher base than comparable countries - RBA should walk a very straight line for a period. It is all very well to state that there are concerns about inflation, but, the main features as I see it at the present are:
- unemployment
- australia is the only country to increase rates of late, albeit from a much higher base than comparable countries
-

]]> By: Interest Rates » AMP Shane Oliver pencils in another rate hike in December and … http://www.lendingcentral.com/2009/11/10/amp-shane-oliver-pencils-in-another-rate-hike-in-december-and-expresses-concern-about-housing-affordability/#comment-22524 Interest Rates » AMP Shane Oliver pencils in another rate hike in December and … Tue, 10 Nov 2009 13:39:19 +0000 http://www.lendingcentral.com/?p=3245#comment-22524 [...] Read the rest of this great post here [...] [...] Read the rest of this great post here [...]

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