Economy faces “rocky road” despite modest jobless rise

The federal government has warned that the economy still faces a rough ride, even though another rise in the jobless rate was more moderate than experts had predicted.

The unemployment rate struck a six-year high of 5.8 per cent in June data released on Thursday, rising one notch from the 5.7 per cent posted in May.

This was slightly less than the 5.9 per cent predicted by economists.

Still, there was a solid 21,400 drop in the total number of people employed in the month.

The total number of jobs lost in May was also revised to 8,500, up from an originally reported 1,700.

“We still have a long and rocky road ahead of us as a result of the global recession,” Acting Prime Minister Julia Gillard told reporters in Melbourne.

The data came just hours after the International Monetary Fund (IMF) released updated world growth forecasts, saying the rate of decline in the global economy is “moderating”.

“Despite these positive signs, the global recession is not over,” it said in its report released in Washington.

Treasurer Wayne Swan said the IMF has made it clear that the global recession still has some way to run.

“Australia is clearly not immune from its ongoing impacts, particularly rising unemployment,” Mr Swan said in a statement.

The IMF also said - as argued by Prime Minister Kevin Rudd in Germany this week - governments should start considering exit strategies to stimulus measures, “even though the time has not yet come to start withdrawing all the various forms of official support”.

Ms Gillard said the government’s stimulus packages would continue to support Australian jobs.

But for those who found themselves out of work the government would be there “with a helping hand”.

Opposition Leader Malcolm Turnbull said the jobs figures are a major concern as the government continues to burden the economy with debt that will impose “a handbrake on recovery”.

“That is why it is vital the prime minister restores some real discipline and fiscal prudence and sound economic management to the way he’s running the economy,” Mr Turnbull told reporters in Perth.

Despite the steady climb in the jobless rate, it has fallen short of the 6.0 per cent predicted by June in the May federal budget.

The government has said it is sticking with its forecast for an unemployment rate of 8.25 per cent by the middle of next year for now.

Any adjustments to forecasts would be made in the mid-year budget review towards the end of the year.

The breakdown of the employment figures show full-time positions are bearing the brunt of the economic downturn, but are being partly offset by a rising number of part-time workers.

This trend continued in June with a 21,900 fall in full-time workers in June, while part-time positions rose by 400.

RBS Australia economist Felicity Emmett said the extreme weakness in forward indicators such as job ads and business hiring intentions suggests that the labour market will continue to deteriorate over the coming year.

But the strength in part-time employment provides ongoing evidence that firms are “hoarding labour”.

“After years of difficulty in hiring and retaining good staff, businesses are reluctant to let staff go and are holding on to their workers, but cutting their hours,” she said in a research note.

Ms Gillard, who also holds the employment portfolio, said she applauded such action during these tough economic times.

“Many employers and employees are agreeing arrangements to work part-time or short-time in order to help businesses through this difficult period,” she said.

But trade unions said business should be doing more given they were delivered a “windfall” after the Australian Fair Pay Commission this week chose to freeze the minimum wage in its annual deliberations.

“Low paid workers are being made to sacrifice real wages over the next 12 months and will struggle to meet their costs of living as a result,” ACTU president Sharan Burrow said in a statement.

“Employers have a responsibility to do more.”

AAP

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