Home buyers not panicked into fixed rate loans

Home owners are not being panicked into switching to fixed rate loans, despite the nation’s largest home lender recently raising its standard variable mortgage rate, a broker says.

Earlier this month, the Commonwealth Bank of Australia raised its variable rate by 10 basis points, blaming higher funding costs.

Loan Group executive director John Kolenda said the company’s brokers had received few inquiries about fixed rates despite the increase.

“The lack of demand to switch to fixed rates indicated the majority of home owners believed they would be better off sticking to variable rates while the economy remained in decline,” Mr Kolenda said.

He said most economists thought the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) was more likely to reduce the official cash rate below the current level of 3.0 per cent over the next 12 months due to rising unemployment.

He said home owners were enjoying variable rates of about five per cent, the lowest in almost 50 years.

“The opportunity to lock in a long-term fixed rate in the low five per cent range has probably passed as the major banks have already significantly increased their fixed rates,” he said.

Mr Kolenda said people may also be wary of locking into fixed rates as many mortgage holders were caught out switching from variable rates prior to the economic downturn.

According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, more than 125,000 people locked into fixed rates of more than eight per cent in the 12 months to August 2008.

“Those people then watched as the RBA reduced the cash rate by more than four per cent in response to the global financial crisis,” he said.

AAP

6 Comments

Howard June 26, 2009

People need to weigh up the chance of a return to the mid teens level of interest rates like we saw in the early 90s.

It seems remote now, but with US, UK & Europe doing quantitative easing (a.k.a. printing money) inflation has to be possible once again.

7.19% fixed for 5 years might sound expensive compared to 5.19% variable, but we’re headed back there at some time. Better to lock in at that now, rather than pay 15% when inflation gets away on us.

Peter Buskin June 26, 2009

Howard,
Do you honestly believe that we are headed for 15% rates at any time in the near future (ie within the next 3-5 years ????
Personally, I feel that the 1% to 1.5% difference between Variable/Fixed is just too much at the present time……
About 4 years ago (when Variable & Fixed rates were almost exactly the same), I got most of my clients to fix for at least 3 years & it worked out brilliantly.

Howard June 26, 2009

@ Peter.

I put the chances of mortgage rates above 10% at about 1 in 10. I.e. not likely, but not impossible either.

I rate the likelyhood of rates staying low for several years much higher, say at better than 50/50.

The reason I still recommend fixing now is because of the unequal level of pain that would occur from the two situations.

Paying 7.19% while others are enjoying 5.19% might cause a bit of regret, but paying 15.19% would make my clients destitute.

Peter Buskin June 26, 2009

Howard,
Good points - certainly rates of 15% would cause a real meltdown. Interestingly (sic), talk is of a variable rate drop or two in the next couple of months ie (0.25% - 0.50% ) - futher increasing the Variable/Fixed margins. My gut feel is that Fixed Rates will see a downward correction, maybe down to the 6% mark. That will be the time to Fix….
All a bit of a crystal ball exercise isn’t it ????

Howard June 26, 2009

@ Peter

Here’s my “forecast”: http://imgur.com/ONYut.png

As I always warn my clients, my crystal ball is as cloudy as anyone else’s. This view of the future is based on the mid point of the market futures, FRAs and swap curves that we see today. This is where the real money is put on the line - but then again, the big boys at the banks get it wrong as well don’t they?

Anyway, it shows the 3 month, ( a good proxy for the cost of funding for variable rate mortgages) going up steeply, up by 3.50% before 2012.

But the key point to me is the interbank market is expecting the 5 year swap rate ( a proxy for the cost of funding for 5 year fixed rates ) to only ever climb from here on out also…

Howard June 26, 2009

I should clarify: the “Aussie” in my chart is slang for AUD - I am not associated with Aussie the mortgage brokers.

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